crashbandicootoldgame|酒鬼酒(000799)：转型期业绩承压 等待改革取得成效

Institution: China Merchants Securities

Researcher: Yu Jiaqi / Liu Cheng

The company achieved revenue in 2023Crashbandicootoldgame.300 million yuanCrashbandicootoldgame, down 30% from the same period last yearCrashbandicootoldgame.1%, the net profit returned to the mother was 550 million, down 47.8% from the same period last year. Sales rebate 2.51 billion, year-on-year-26.1%, operating net cash flow 51 million, year-on-year-87.3%, revenue and cash flow pressure, channel competition intensified, cost investment increased, profitability under pressure. Internal ginseng, Xiangquan decline more, the company to strengthen the creation of large single products. 24Q1 marketing model transformation, revenue and profitability under pressure.

The performance in the transitional period is under pressure, waiting for results.CrashbandicootoldgameWe downgraded the company's EPS from 2024 to 2026 to 1.16, 1.23 and 1.27, to "overweight" rating.

23 years of revenue and cash flow are under pressure. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 2.83 billion yuan, down 30.1% from the same period last year, and its net profit was 550 million, down 47.8% from the same period last year. Sales rebate 2.51 billion, year-on-year-26.1%, operating net cash flow 51 million, year-on-year-87.3%, revenue and cash flow pressure. The revenue of Q4 alone was 690 million yuan, an increase of 21.7% over the same period last year, and the net profit attributed to listed shareholders was 70 million, down 10.1% from the same period last year.

In 2023, the gross profit margin is 78.3%, year-on-year-1.3pct, net profit 19.4%, year-on-year-6.5pct, management expense rate is 5.9%, year-on-year + 1.5pct; sales expense rate is 32.2%, year-on-year + 6.9pct, channel competition intensifies, cost investment increases, profitability is under pressure. In 2023, it plans to distribute 10 yuan per share in cash, with a drop of 23% and a dividend rate of 59%, an increase of 19 points over 22 years.

Internal ginseng, Xiangquan decline more, the company to strengthen the creation of large single products. In terms of products, the company achieved 4.05 billion of revenue from alcohol sales for the whole year, + 18.6% compared with the same period last year. The internal reference series realized revenue of 710 million, year-on-year-38.2%, accounting for 25.3% of alcohol sales revenue; realized gross profit margin of 90.1%, year-on-year-1.5pct. Alcoholic series achieved revenue of 1.65 billion, year-on-year-27.5%, accounting for 58.2% of alcohol sales revenue; alcoholic series gross profit margin of 77.5%, year-on-year-2.5pct, Xiangquan series revenue of 390 million, year-on-year-68.3%, accounting for 13.7% of alcohol sales revenue.

Affected by the lack of confidence in the return of money and digesting inventory, the company's revenue has declined greatly. In the past 23 years, the company has focused on the construction of internal ginseng and Hongtan items, the construction of display outlets and banquet activities in the province, and the promotion of 22 model markets outside the province to speed up the cultivation of consumers. In 23, the number of opening bottles of Hongtan 18 increased by 70%, and the number of banquets increased by 40%.

24Q1 marketing model transformation, revenue and profitability under pressure. 24Q1 achieved revenue of 490 million, year-on-year-48.8%, home net profit of 70 million, year-on-year-75.6%, cash rebate of 320 million, year-on-year-58.2%, operating net cash flow-260 million, year-on-year-253%. The company's Q1 final contract responsibility is 240 million, year-on-year-130 million.

At the critical stage of the transformation of the marketing mode, the new products are in the introduction period, the internal parameters are out of stock, and the income is under pressure. 24Q1 gross profit margin 71.1%, year-on-year-10.5pct, net profit 14.9%, year-on-year-16.9pct, sales expense rate 33.9%, year-on-year + 7.9%; management expense rate 8.0%, year-on-year + 4.3pct. Q1 increased the input of market costs, focusing on the construction of model market, core terminal construction, consumer mobile sales and other aspects, and the expense rate has been improved.

Transition performance under pressure, waiting for results, downgraded to "overweight" rating. At present, the business demand of the liquor industry is still slow to recover, and the Matthew effect is intensified, which has more requirements for the competitiveness of enterprises in all aspects. Alcoholic Liquor (000799) actively implements channel reform, but the phased performance in the transitional period is under pressure. it is suggested that we should wait for the results of the reform and the elimination of inventory. We downgraded the company's EPS from 2024 to 2026 to 1.16, 1.23 and 1.27, to "overweight" rating.

Risk hints: economic recovery is not as expected, channel reform is not as expected, and expansion outside the province is blocked.