fibawcqualifiersasia|银行业2024年5月投资策略：工业企业偿债能力开始回升

Market performance Review the Citic Bank Index rose 4% in April.Fibawcqualifiersasia.8%, outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.9%. At the end of the month, the average PB (MRQ) of the banking sector closed at 0.55x, and the average PE (TTM) closed at 5.2x. The first is the combination of monthly arithmetic average return of 8.4%. Important developments in the industry the 2023 annual reports of 42 A-share listed banks and the first quarterly reports of 2024 have been disclosed. The data show that the growth rate of operating income and net profit of the whole industry continues to decline. Looking to the future, we believe that there is still downward pressure on the bank net interest margin at present, but with the reduction of the base, if the subsequent LPR does not decline significantly, the adverse impact of the annual net interest margin on income and net profit growth may be weakened, and the bank performance is expected to bottom out. Tracking of the main earnings drivers (1) the year-on-year growth rate of asset size has slowed down. The total assets of commercial banks rose 9.2% in March 2024 compared with the same period last year, down from 11.1% at the beginning of the year. (2) interest rates go down. 1) the monthly average yield of 10-year treasury bonds last month was 2.28%, down 3bp from the previous month, the monthly average of Shibo 3M was 2.07%, and 10bps was down from the previous month. 2) the LPR quotation remained unchanged last month. The latest LPR quotation is 3.45% for one year and 3.95% for five years. (3) the debt-paying ability of industrial enterprises has rebounded. In February 2024, the interest guarantee ratio (12-month moving average) of industrial enterprises above the national scale rebounded slightly to 788% from the previous month, while the loss area of industrial enterprises fell somewhat, which means that the quality of bank assets may be improved. Of course, the sustainability of the improvement of relevant indicators still needs to be followed up. Investment advice industry, the current banking sector valuation is low, experienced real estate risk exposure, stock mortgage interest rate adjustment, the plate potential negative significantly reduced, meaning that the valuation downside risk is very small. If LPR does not fall sharply in the future, for most listed banks, first-quarter results in 2024 are likely to be the bottom in recent years. As the macroeconomic recovery improves, it is expected to promote the valuation repair of the banking sector, so we maintain the industry's "overweight" rating. In terms of individual stocks, first, it is proposed to lay out the targets with excellent long-term prospects of fundamentals at the bottom of the valuation, recommending China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank; second, with the recovery of the real economy, it is recommended to pay attention to small agricultural banks dominated by small and medium-sized micro-clientele groups, such as Changshu Bank; third, for funds that pursue low volatility and absolute returns, it is recommended to pay attention to banks with high dividend yields and stable dividend records. Risk hintFibawcqualifiersasiaIf the macro-economy goes down sharply, it may affect the banking industry from many aspects, such as net interest margin, asset quality and so on. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.